Locked Up by a Lockup: Valuing Liquidity as a Real Option

Hedge funds often impose lockups and notice periods to limit the ability of investors to withdraw capital. We model the investor's decision to withdraw capital as a real option and treat lockups and notice periods as exercise restrictions. Our methodology incorporates time-varying probabilities of hedge fund failure and optimal early exercise. We estimate a two-year lockup with a three-month notice period costs approximately 1% of the initial investment for an investor with constant relative risk aversion utility and risk aversion of three. The cost of illiquidity can easily exceed 10% if the hedge fund manager can arbitrarily suspend withdrawals.     

On the incidence of commissions in auction markets

We analyze the welfare consequences of an increase in the commissions charged by intermediaries in auction markets. Commissions are similar to taxes imposed on buyers and sellers, and standard economics suggests that both sellers and buyers are made worse off by the tax. However, we show that when the buyers' participation constraint binds and when sellers set optimal reservation prices, the level of commissions correlates to participation and reservation prices in such a way that participating buyers strictly gain from higher commissions.     

Towards a New Trade Policy Between the USA and Middle‐East Countries:Estimating Trade Resistance and Export Potential

At the time of the conclusion of free trade areas (FTAs) between the USA and Middle‐East and North African (MENA) countries, there is a lack of literature concerning the measurement of the current US export position with regards to these countries, and the US export potential in this area. From recent developments of gravity models, this paper derives an estimable equation which includes various trade resistance variables, notably border effects, multilateral resistance as well as specific bilateral effects. The model is tested in order to scrutinise the impact of these variables on US exports to MENA countries, as well as the US export potential in this area. To that end, a selection of panel data specifications is proposed, mainly Hausman and Taylor models as well as Arellano and Bond dynamic models. Results unambiguously indicate that as compared to the other OECD countries, the USA suffers from a substantial trade integration deficit with MENA countries. This is reflected by the strongly negative values of the US‐MENA bilateral fixed effects, as well as the high bilateral border effects. In addition, the estimated actual/potential US export ratio to these countries is only 0.76. Therefore, implementing an FTA between the USA and MENA countries may allow the former to progressively improve its export position in this area. This would also help MENA countries diversify their supplying sources.     

Divining directions for development: a cooperative industry–government–public sector research approach to establishing R&D priorities

This paper discusses the limitations of many fiscal and related methods of encouraging increases in R&D as a tool for establishing research priorities. It suggests that any 'national' rather than industry–specific approach is likely to be ineffective in stimulating the R&D needed for the development of all industries. This is particularly the case in countries such as Australia and New Zealand where many decisions about R&D investments are made overseas, in the headquarters of the multinational firms that dominate most sectors of the economy. Instead, the paper suggests that an industry development approach currently being used in Australia, the Action Agenda approach, be modified to include a broader range of players, notably the public sector R&D community and an industry's 'users', to think about and establish R&D priorities which will underpin progress in the industry as a whole rather than being restricted to individual firms. The proposal rests on the results of AEGIS empirical research (surveys and interviews) into the dynamics of innovation in different 'product systems' (broader than sectors) in Australia which indicates the broad range of players that need to be included both in the analysis of innovation and in policies for stimulating the research which can assist innovation.     

Environmental turbulence and the functions of budgetary control

While budgetary control is a potentially significant tool when the economic environment is unstable and unpredictable, the analysis of its development demonstrates that its use has dramatically expanded over the time since companies have been able to run forecasts. In order to help them develop budgetary control, companies have implemented strategies that have reduced risks and hence improved their ability to make accurate forecasts. Such strategies have taken many forms and varied from one firm to another. They materialized as various types of agreement, including cartels, through strategies to effect market leadership, or via policies of nationalization. In those companies where the environment was stable and risk limitation was not important, budgetary control could be used for various internal purposes. In this respect, the analysis of the management of companies helps us to identify the purposes for which budgetary control is utilized. It is found that budgetary control allows for greater expansion opportunities and provides the means to strengthen the control of management within major companies. Our observations highlight a contradictory aspect of budgetary control: while it is relevant within an unstable environment, it performs best in an environment which is highly managed.     

Attitudes Toward Catastrophe

In light of climate change and other global threats, policy commentators sometimes urge that society should be more concerned about catastrophes. This paper reflects on what society’s attitude toward low-probability, high-impact events is, or should be. We first argue that catastrophe risk can be conceived of as a spread in the distribution of losses. Based on this conception, we review studies from decision sciences, psychology, and behavioral economics that explore people’s attitudes toward various social risks. Contray to popular belief, we find more evidence against than in favor of catastrophe aversion—the preference for a mean-preserving contraction of the loss distribution—and discuss a number of possible behavioral explanations. Next, we turn to social choice theory and examine how various social welfare functions handle catastrophe risk. We explain why catastrophe aversion may be in conflict with equity concerns and other-regarding preferences. Finally, we discuss current approaches to evaluate and regulate catastrophe risk.     

Host–home country linkages and host–home country specific advantages as determinants of foreign acquisitions by Indian firms

This paper examines the complementarity of country-specific linkages with country-specific advantages in explaining the foreign acquisitions by Indian MNEs by testing and extending further the Eclectic Paradigm. The approach to internationalisation dominated by the Eclectic Paradigm has constantly faced challenges in gaining acceptance as a holistic framework in explaining outward foreign direct investment (OFDI). In 2006 Dunning acknowledged that the role of networks and linkages (Dunning, 2006a). In this paper we explore the view that linkages between host and home country should be included in the Eclectic Paradigm as institutional assets. Country-specific linkages add to richness and improve explanatory power of the Eclectic Paradigm. Linkage variables are shown to be an adjunct to the Eclectic Paradigm, not an alternative to it.     

Financial Reform after the Crisis: An Early Assessment

Financial reform has been a core dimension of the initial global policy response to the financial turmoil of 2007-08.At the first G-20 summit of heads of state and government in November 2008,more than four-fifths of the action points in the final declaration were about financial regulation.Obviously,the crisis is not over at the time of writing,and the cycle of financial reform it triggered is very far from complete.But it can be said confidently that the crisis has been transformational for financial regulatory policy,at least in the United States and Europe.